Weekly clippings #36 - causality in the temp-CO2 relationship, deadly fraud, ESG/DEI alternative, California rooftop solar collapse, greenwashing risks, death of 1.5C target, ESG a dirty word

This week in Science I bring you a fascinating application of stochastics to the question of cause and effect in the temperature-CO2 relationship, and the data shows that only a temperature-caused change in CO2 is supported, not the other way around as alarmists claim, meaning the entire climate brouhaha is again proven false, along with everything and all the insane policies that have sprung from it. As I constantly demonstrate, there is ample evidence from the scientific disciplines of physics, chemistry, astrophysics, mathematics, biology and other areas that there is no dangerous man-made global warming, no climate emergency or crisis, and that natural cycles dominate the climate. Anyone who cares to learn can easily find all this. Another article explains how official record-keepers constantly adjust past temperatures downwards to make it seem like greater warming has occurred – a most suspicious bias.

In the Investment/Economics category, I have an explanation of how Biden’s LNG pause is a deadly fraud, a proposed alternative to ESG and DEI, crashing rooftop solar, greenwashing risks, the death of the 1.5C target, and more.

This week’s absurdity is really a tragedy: the push away from nuclear, and thus to one of its best alternatives, coal, results in five million preventable deaths per year.

Revisiting causality using stochastics: 2. Applications  In this article, after the authors from the validity of their methods using models, they proceed to examine some real-world applications. Go to section C) Atmospheric temperature and carbon dioxide concentration. Here you will find their analysis of causality between temperature and CO2. In the introduction to the section they say "The problem related to the causal relationship between atmospheric temperature (T) and concentration of carbon dioxide ([CO2]) is regarded by many as part of a ‘settled science’ yet it remains challenging and still debated. For example, the study by Koutsoyiannis & Kundzewicz [4] concluded, making use of the HOE causality concept and based on the analysis of modern measurements of T and CO2, that the principal causality direction is T→[CO2], despite the common conviction that the opposite is true. In addition, using palaeoclimatic proxy data from Vostok ice cores, Koutsoyiannis [15} and Koutsoyiannis & Kundzewicz [4] found a time lag of CO2 from T of a thousand years. Here we re-examine both modern and paleo datasets with our proposed causality detection methodology.

Later, when analyzing the best satellite data for temperature and Mauna Loa CO2 data, they say "Clearly, the results in figure 14 suggest a (mono-directional) potentially causal system with T as the cause and [CO2] as the effect. Hence, the common perception that increasing [CO2] causes increased T can be excluded as it violates the necessary condition for this causality direction."

Then, analyzing Vostok ice core data they find "Here, the results support a HOE causality. Nonetheless, again the principal direction is ΔT→Δln[CO2]  with a time lag of the order of 1000 years."

In their conclusions they say (emphasis added) "...while in general, the causal relationship of atmospheric T and CO2 concentration, as obtained by proxy data, appears to be of HOE type with principal direction T→[CO2], in the recent decades, the more accurate modern data support a conclusion that this principal direction has become exclusive. In other words, it is the increase of temperature that caused increased CO2 concentration. Though this conclusion may sound counterintuitive at first glance, because it contradicts common perception (and for this reason we have assessed the case with an alternative parametric methodology in the electronic supplementary material, section SI2.4, with results confirming those presented here), in fact it is reasonable. The temperature increase began at the end of the Little Ice Period, in the early nineteenth century, when human CO2 emissions were negligible; hence other factors, such as the solar activity (measured by sunspot numbers), as well as internal long-range mechanisms of the complex climatic systems had to play their roles.

"By letting the geophysical records speak for themselves, with the help of our original methodology, we discovered a regularity that apparently contradicts common opinion. Our innovative findings should be given considerable attention as well as careful and critical scrutiny in the form of public discussion by the scientific community, which will undoubtedly improve understanding."

Man-made cooling "It’s certainly possible that temperature readings in the past were inaccurate, because thermometers were imprecise, because thermometers were biased, or because the people doing the readings were incompetent. But if the instruments were inaccurate or the monitors were inept, the mistakes would be random, and then any correction in any place and year would be as likely to raise as lower the figure. Instead with NOAA it’s always down down down as you go back back back."

Biden’s LNG pause: a deadly fraud

"In an attempt to buy votes from ignorant, gullible activists, Biden has amputated the US LNG industry without regard for the catastrophic consequences."

Instead of ESG and DEI, how about value creation, justice, and independence?  "Many commentators lament the declining investment in ESG and DEI, fearing that catastrophic climate change and accelerating social injustice will ensue. They urge corporations to balance ESG and DEI initiatives with profit-making (which ignores that no objective criterion for such balancing exists).

"Such fears, as well as the need for ESG and DEI, are unfounded. Many experts have shown that we are not headed for a climate catastrophe: the CO2 levels are at their low end, the global temperature increase (attributable to human activity) in the last 170 years is only 1 degree Celsius, and we are capable of adapting to changes in climate. As for injustice, by evaluating people by their race or minority group status, ESG and DEI programs have not diminished it; we need different guidelines to deal with everyone justly."

A Short Guide to ESG: Conclusions "Few things are completely devoid of worth or insight. ESG is no exception. I hope readers do not find in my work reactionary or a total rejection of every facet of Environmental, Social, and Governance criteria in business. I’ve noted multiple times that certain elements of ESG have great legitimacy. Companies should assess environmental risks to their businesses, even including political dynamics of environmental risk (such as banning internal combustion engine vehicles or requiring greater disclosure). However, assessing and adapting to a world with environmental risks in no way requires companies to engage in climate activism or to sacrifice efficiency for the sake of polishing their “green” bona fides. Nor does it mean governments should actively police and regulate questionable environmental goals.

"What aggravates so many people about ESG is not necessarily any single policy, idea, or goal, but the often-underhanded way in which the movement operates to obtain its goals. Rather than working through open democratic processes and shareholder proxies, a small subset of the world population has taken it upon themselves to make decisions for the rest of mankind without their knowledge or consent."

California’s Rush for Rooftop Solar Crashes After CPUC Changes Rules Midstream  “The unanimous vote by the state’s Public Utilities Commission to reduce payments to solar customers for the electricity they generate comes after a decade of controversy over the program. Critics say it has resulted in higher electric bills for households that don’t have rooftop solar panels, including low-income families that can’t afford them.” CPUC Commissioners claimed the new rules disproportionately negatively impacted low-income ratepayers. So, the natural move they made involved DEI – diversity, inclusion and equity: “the successor tariff should promote equity, inclusion, electrification, and the adoption of solar paired with storage systems, and provide a glide path so that the industry can sustainably transition from the current tariff to the successor tariff and from a predominantly stand-alone solar system tariff to one that promotes the adoption of solar systems paired with storage.” This word salad is actually called a redistribution of wealth… from ratepayers who don’t really have “wealth”..." This is how energy in California is done – not based on supply and demand, but based on subsidies and kickbacks to politicians and political policies.

Greenwashing: The next "big thing"? "Claiming to be “green” or sustainable (including in relation to governance or social aspects, such as diversity and inclusion and gender advancement) has become a competitiveness factor among global businesses. This presents a range of legal and reputational risks, including allegations of “greenwashing” and “ESG washing,” and liability risks resulting from misrepresentation, breach of contract, loss of business and possibly even fraud and criminal sanctions. Civil society and regulators have become more aggressive in seeking to hold companies accountable for greenwashing." (emphasis added)

Turn off the Power to 35 Municipalities when a Climate Emergency Arrives in Ontario  "Anyone in Ontario who bothers to take a cursory look at our daily electricity output should view occurrences on December 5, 2023, as alarming, but did they notice?

"What was easily visible had a “climate alarmist” visited the IESO website to take a look at what forms of Ontario’s capacity were generating power say, at the peak demand hour (Hour 18), may have caused them to do a 180-degree turn! Those IWT (industrial wind turbines) were barely operating and only generated 86 MWh a miserly 1.7% of their rated capacity. Solar generation was zero at that hour!" (emphasis added) "Over the full day those IWT managed to only produce 3,997 MWh or approximately what 2% of all Ontario households consume daily and 3% of their actual capacity!"

35 Ontario municipalities have passed a motion to tell the Ministry of Energy to endorse a “gas power phase-out", believing hydro imports from Quebec can fill the gap. On December 5 Ontario was exporting power to Quebec every hour of the day, so phasing out Ontario gas would have led to blackouts in both provinces. How about if we tried an experiment and cut off the electricity from gas to some of those municipalities?

The Death of the 1.5 Degree Climate Target - The current path of climate policy is at a dead end—a welcome opportunity to rethink. "Missing the 1.5 degree target does not mean that we’re all going to boil, bake, and die. Global emissions growth has slowed down enough that the extreme warming scenarios brandished so carelessly in the public debate have become all but impossible. Deaths due to natural disasters, such as floods, droughts, storms, and wildfires, have also declined radically as countries have become richer and more resilient. And economic losses due to climate shocks have decreased fivefold between the 1980s and mid 2000s."

The Latest Dirty Word in Corporate America: ESG "Following years of simmering investor backlash, political pressure and legal threats over environmental, social and governance efforts, a number of business leaders are now making a conscious effort to avoid the once widely used acronym for such initiatives."

Five Million Preventable Deaths per Year  With environmentalist lobbying against nuclear power ever since its discovery, as usual they are causing the death of many people and, perversely as usual, delaying the phasing out of coal for energy. They cannot conceive that when humans are left free to innovate that things mostly get better and better, faster and faster. 

"Air pollution mortality from coal burning also occurs in places that are extremely wealthy. A 2019 study estimated the air pollution consequences of Germany’s nuclear phase-out. That study, published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, focused on the shut-down of 10 of Germany’s nuclear power plants from 2011 to 2017 and found that, the switch from nuclear power to fossil fuel-fired production resulted in substantial increases in global and local air pollution emissions… lost nuclear production was replaced by electricity production from coal- and gas-fired sources in Germany as well as electricity imports from surrounding countries.

"The study concluded that “the [nuclear] phase-out resulted in more than 1,100 additional deaths per year” due to excess mortality from the consequences of increased air pollution. Since 2011 that totals more than 10,000 deaths, far more than all deaths attributable to nuclear power in history. Had Germany not phased out its nuclear power plants, the nation already would have exited coal."