Weekly clippings #34 - realistic warming projections, overheating myth, ESG wars, green energy gender gap, oil & gas, sudden collapse of DEI, ESG out

This week in science features a deep dive into those projections of temperature change that are actually realistic. Since all the economic and political aspects of climate change are predicated on there being a scientifically proven man-made emergency/crisis, understanding what the scientific literature shows us is vital to everything that follows, and there is a massive body of literature across all scientific disciplines showing that nature has always been dangerous and there is no global change detectable. Understanding how models are created, validated and used is vital. The article referenced is just one of many, but captures high-level knowledge about models.

In economics/investment I have references to articles on ESG wars, the Green Energy Gender Gap, Biden killing oil and gas, DEI vulnerable to sudden collapse, catastrophic ESG lapses, and more.

Impacts and risks of “realistic” global warming projections for the 21st century  "The obtained climate projections show that the expected global surface warming for the 21st-century will likely be mild, that is, no more than 2.5–3.0 °C and, on average, likely below the 2.0 °C threshold. This should allow for the mitigation and management of the most dangerous climate-change related hazards through appropriate low-cost adaptation policies. In conclusion, enforcing expensive decarbonization and net-zero emission scenarios, such as SSP1-2.6, is not required because the Paris Agreement temperature target of keeping global warming < 2 °C throughout the 21st century should be compatible also with moderate and pragmatic shared socioeconomic pathways such as the SSP2-4.5."

The myth of an overheated planet Myth: This year's hot temperatures show that fossil fuels are already making Earth unlivably hot. Truth: This year's hot temperatures are part of a slow warming trend on a planet where far more people die from cold than from heat, and where we need fossil fuels to protect us from both.

Climate Reporting, ESG Wars Set to Dominate Boardrooms in 2024 "Companies are poised to face new climate disclosure requirements, greenwashing scrutiny and international supply chain risks amid increasing environmental, social and governance politicization in 2024." 

Bridging the Green Energy Gender Gap "A recent analysis of data by the Fuller Project shows that jobs in the clean energy sector are overwhelmingly dominated by men. The data demonstrates that just 31 percent of workers in green energy are women, a figure that has remained unchanged since former President Barack Obama pledged to create 5 million green jobs in 2008. While the number of jobs has increased, the gender disparity in the sector has remained the same." 

Referring to a study by McKinsey, the article references the relationship between diversity and financial success: "...it was found that companies in the top quartile for women leaders are 15 percent more likely to have above–industry average financial returns, suggesting the correlation between diverse leadership and success. This demonstrates the potential detrimental financial impact of not hiring a diverse workforce." This is shown in the middle set of bars in the figure below. 

I think this is an abuse of statistics since the actual difference is only 54 to 47, or a 7 percent difference while the 15% is the percent difference between percentages. Really, if the blue line was 4% lower and the black line  3% higher they would be equal. In business terms the difference is minor and in any case, businesses that do not hire the best people for the job do not do as well - they have to deal with the consequences. Nothing here justifies any government or regulatory use of force (such as hiring mandates or reporting requirements) against companies.

There’s Only So Much Joe Biden Can Do To Kill Oil And Gas  "One of the frequent boasts then-candidate Joe Biden made during his 2020 run for the presidency was that his administration would mount a frontal assault on the domestic oil and gas business, outlaw hydraulic fracturing and put policies in place that would assure the industry was out of business within a decade." "...current data from DOE’s own Energy Information Administration noting that the US industry will finish 2023 by producing all-time record volumes of both oil and natural gas during the year. Mind you, these are not just records for the United States, but higher volumes than have ever been produced by any nation on earth in a single year."

‘Merit Is No Longer Evil’ - Is DEI vulnerable to sudden collapse?  "A common effect of preference falsification is the preservation of widely disliked structures. Another is the conferment of an aura of stability on structures vulnerable to sudden collapse. When the support of a policy, tradition, or regime is largely contrived, a minor event may activate a bandwagon that generates massive yet unanticipated change. In distorting public opinion, preference falsification also corrupts public discourse and, hence, human knowledge.

"Preference falsification has been central to the trajectory of DEI. People who abhor DEI principles and methods came to favor these publicly through a preference cascade. Every instance of preference falsification induced others to pretend they consider DEI just, efficient, beneficial to marginalized groups, etc. In time, a false consensus effectively displaced the search for truth as the university’s core mission, replacing it with DEI.

"Most professors watched in concealed horror the transfer of enormous powers from themselves to rapidly growing DEI bureaucracies. In countless contexts, they endorsed policies they considered harmful, participated in the defamation of scholars they admired, and sheepishly submitted to DEI training—all to be left alone, to avoid being called racist, to advance their careers. But the resulting equilibrium was self-undermining. In emboldening DEI officials, it increased privately felt anger and resentment. The stage was set for a preference cascade in reverse.

"The shock that unleashed the ongoing cascade in reverse was the Hamas massacres of October 7. The chain of events that they triggered in the U.S.—anti-Jewish demonstrations, the Congressional hearings, the plagiarism revelations—brought to the surface outrage that had been building up quietly for years. As public criticism of DEI grew, and as it became clear that broad segments of the left share the outrage, the DEI-favoring false consensus disintegrated."

Hedge Funds Target ‘Catastrophic’ ESG Lapses for Huge Returns "There are now more than 100 litigation funders operating in Europe, according to Insurance Europe, an industry group. That includes more US firms setting up shop in Europe."

ESG-Linked Bond Sales Drop Most on Record on Investor Skepticism  Global sales of sustainability-linked bonds plunged 22% in 2023, a record drop, as investors remain critical of the label, and more issuers risk missing their pre-determined environmental, social or governance targets.  

ESG Campaigns Seen Falling Out of Favor With Activist Investors "Activist investors are expected to carry out fewer environmental and social campaigns this year after the strategy proved less lucrative than other shareholder agendas, according to business consulting firm Alvarez & Marsal Inc.  An analysis by the firm found that activist campaigns focused on operational or strategic change outperformed the market by an average of 9.4% over the past six years. By contrast, campaigns focused on environmental and social issues saw the weakest relative returns, outperforming the market by just 0.2% on average for the same period, according to a report published on Tuesday. “As investors focus more firmly on returns in 2024 in a challenging market, we expect to see a decline in ESG-related campaigns and a renewed focus on metrics such as margin growth, cash generation and return on capital,” said Andre Medeiros, a managing director of A&M."

I Come Not to Bury the Financial Times, But to Mock it  "...it is equally true that science’s unrelenting appetite for information has caused a mushrooming of energy-intensive data centres around the world. According to the International Energy Agency, these buildings now consume about 1 per cent of the world’s electricity. 

"However, this is a price we must pay for understanding the world. How can we inform decision makers about the best ways to bring down carbon emissions if we can’t track the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, where it’s coming from and who’s producing it? The carbon emissions from technological research are well spent: ultimately this research will safeguard the future of our planet."

You could never make this stuff up - our entire society is stark, raving mad, all over a trace element in our atmosphere that is in fact the basis for all life on Planet Earth.