Weekly clippings #32 - tree rings, fingerprints, no hurricane trend, Levelized Full System Costs of Electricity, destructive green economics, experts 0 for 50
In science – tree ring data, “anthropogenic fingerprinting” and
hurricane data.
Discovery of Data for One of the “Other 26” Jacoby Series - a tree ring record you were not supposed to see. Since thermometer records are less than two centuries old, the vast majority of Earth's historical temperature record is created by the study of proxy data such as tree rings, ice cores, sea sediments, etc. Some of the most (in)famous records come from tree-ring data showing a hockey stick shape indicating a thousand years of steady temperature followed by a dramatic rise in the 20th century. Canadian Steve McIntyre has been diligently showing the many errors of the hockey stick for about two decades now and in his latest work has located data that was deliberately omitted from a key tree-ring study. And do you think the omitted data supports the hockey stick?
At the same time, another Canadian, Ross McKitrick, who partnered with Steve McIntyre on critiques of the hockey stick graph, has just published another study examining the method used by climatologists when they purport to identify an anthropogenic "fingerprint" in climate change data. This new paper argues that in typical fingerprinting settings the standard statistical regression method used overcorrects and imparts large upward biases, thus overstating the impact of greenhouse gas forcing. McKitrick's work often consists of pointing out the misuse of statistics by climatologists, who are very likely not also trained statisticians.
Levelized Full System Costs of Electricity The Levelized Full System Costs of Electricity introduced in this paper are the first cost measure to condense the cost of providing electricity to one number per market and technology. With LFSCOE being much higher than the LCOE for wind and solar, it becomes evident that LCOE are far from being an accurate measure to include the cost of intermittency. Analyzing different sources of generation sources shows that the LFSCOE are much higher for wind and solar than for conventional and dispatchable fuels, which stems from the large requirement for storage to overcome wind and solar's intermittency. However, even if these storage costs drop by 90%, renewables are still not competitive on an LFSCOE basis.
Britain’s Net Zero Disaster and the Wind Power Scam "Britain’s energy-policy disaster has lessons for America. The physics and economics of wind power are not magically transformed when they cross the Atlantic. Whenever a politician or wind lobbyist touts wind as low-cost or says net zero will boost growth, they become accessories to the wind power scam. The data lead ineluctably to a decisive conclusion: net zero is anti-growth. It is a formula for prolonged economic stagnation. Anyone who wants the truth about renewables should look at Britain and the sorry state of its economy. For the last decade and a half, it has been going through its worst period of growth since 1780.
At the same time, another Canadian, Ross McKitrick, who partnered with Steve McIntyre on critiques of the hockey stick graph, has just published another study examining the method used by climatologists when they purport to identify an anthropogenic "fingerprint" in climate change data. This new paper argues that in typical fingerprinting settings the standard statistical regression method used overcorrects and imparts large upward biases, thus overstating the impact of greenhouse gas forcing. McKitrick's work often consists of pointing out the misuse of statistics by climatologists, who are very likely not also trained statisticians.
U.S. Hurricane Overview 2023 There are no trends in either landfalling CONUS hurricanes or major hurricanes from 1900 to 2023. Given that climate alarmists regularly claim extreme weather events are increasing yet the science, including IPCC reports, does not support this claim, one wonders where they get their ideas from if not from measurements of reality.
Levelized Full System Costs of Electricity The Levelized Full System Costs of Electricity introduced in this paper are the first cost measure to condense the cost of providing electricity to one number per market and technology. With LFSCOE being much higher than the LCOE for wind and solar, it becomes evident that LCOE are far from being an accurate measure to include the cost of intermittency. Analyzing different sources of generation sources shows that the LFSCOE are much higher for wind and solar than for conventional and dispatchable fuels, which stems from the large requirement for storage to overcome wind and solar's intermittency. However, even if these storage costs drop by 90%, renewables are still not competitive on an LFSCOE basis.The Economics of Green Energy Ideology Solar panels filling fields in cloudy northern countries. Wind turbines manufactured for export by the world’s largest builder of coal-fired power and worst emitter of greenhouse gases. Governments deliberately demolishing their country’s most valuable industry. It is increasingly clear that so-called green energy isn’t just another instance of youthful idealism going a little too far, much less a practical way to a clean future, but a nasty utopian ideology bent on impoverishing entire countries. Gwyn Morgan examines a slice of this destructive landscape and warns of the severe risk to Canada’s economic well-being.
50 Years of Failed Doomsday, Eco-pocalyptic Predictions; the So-called ‘experts’ Are 0-50 As Alex Epstein, author of Fossil Future often points out, one of the first criteria to consider when examining "expert" claims is how accurate the expert has been in the past. If an outspoken "expert" such as Paul Ehrlich, Al Gore, David Suzuki has been consistently wrong, and always in the same direction, then we can safely treat their next forecast as arbitrary, and to be completely ignored. The linked article provides 50 cases where "experts" have predicted a major event or change and been proven wrong. If they are always wrong, and always in the same direction, there must be an underlying ideology that is severely flawed.
A Short Guide to ESG: Legislation "The Europeans have created an ESG ecosystem, involving tens of thousands of people and hundreds of billions of dollars, that, remarkably, does not add a single thing to ordinary citizens’ standard of living. No one participating in this ecosystem creates a single good or service for consumers. In fact, most of what they do makes it more expensive and difficult for companies to create and provide goods and services in the first place.
A Short Guide to ESG: Legislation "The Europeans have created an ESG ecosystem, involving tens of thousands of people and hundreds of billions of dollars, that, remarkably, does not add a single thing to ordinary citizens’ standard of living. No one participating in this ecosystem creates a single good or service for consumers. In fact, most of what they do makes it more expensive and difficult for companies to create and provide goods and services in the first place.
"The courts in the US will play an important role in the coming years in determining whether government agencies or politicians can continue pushing ESG priorities that fly in the face of longstanding legal norms around fiduciary responsibility, and constitutional rules about non-discrimination.
"What we need is not so much an “anti-ESG” legislative approach, but a deeply free-market approach. Rolling back renewable energy subsidies, “dear colleague” letters, regulatory overreach, as well as further strengthening fiduciary obligations will be enough to stop the wasteful, inefficient, and destructive elements of ESG without restricting liberty or imposing unnecessary costs on residents in red states."
"What we need is not so much an “anti-ESG” legislative approach, but a deeply free-market approach. Rolling back renewable energy subsidies, “dear colleague” letters, regulatory overreach, as well as further strengthening fiduciary obligations will be enough to stop the wasteful, inefficient, and destructive elements of ESG without restricting liberty or imposing unnecessary costs on residents in red states."
Britain’s Net Zero Disaster and the Wind Power Scam "Britain’s energy-policy disaster has lessons for America. The physics and economics of wind power are not magically transformed when they cross the Atlantic. Whenever a politician or wind lobbyist touts wind as low-cost or says net zero will boost growth, they become accessories to the wind power scam. The data lead ineluctably to a decisive conclusion: net zero is anti-growth. It is a formula for prolonged economic stagnation. Anyone who wants the truth about renewables should look at Britain and the sorry state of its economy. For the last decade and a half, it has been going through its worst period of growth since 1780.
"Unlike in business and finance, there are no criminal or civil penalties for those who promote policies based on fraud and misrepresentation. Rather, net zero is similar to communism. Like net zero, communism was based on a lie: that it would outproduce capitalism. But it failed to produce, and belief in communism evaporated. When the collapse came, it was sudden and rapid. The truth could not be hidden. A similar fate awaits net zero."
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