Weekly ESG clippings #41 - warmer Roman period, outdated climate models, non-anthropocene, EV freedom, CEO villains, retiring renewable, corrupted ESG, coal demand, fossil fuels to the rescue, OSFI policy, climate science on trial
Imagine you are a leader for a company that manages investments or insurance products, and you have spent a bunch of money adding ESG/sustainable/responsible and the like capabilities to your stable of money managers. You also added ESG overlays to all your other management teams, paid consultants to design and implement all this and put ESG prominently in your marketing. Then, the investing public, financial advisors, and regulators started to recognize the deep errors and biases in the whole ESG movement, and found that much of the terminology you used, the claims you made, the marketing materials you created and the products you offered were firmly based on false scientific claims, false economic benefits, false social values and in fact were terribly harmful to humanity. Might some reputational, regulatory, and even legal damages follow? This blog is an effort to persuade Canadian and international investment managers to tread much more carefully before adopting ESG and similar ideologies.
In the Science category this week we start off with another study showing how it was warmer during Roman times and this is likely part of how the Roman empire was able to flourish for so long, then collapsed when it became colder. Next we have a study showing how temperatures rose to an 11,000 year peak in West Antarctica, reaching the peak 4,000 years ago and cooling since then. Third, a scientist discusses how thousands of studies are being done assuming that the RCP8.5 scenario is some kind of business-as-usual, when it has been proven to be so far outside of measurements as to be useless, and the IPCC still proceeds as if RCP8.5 is meaningful. The Science category closes with a discussion of how it is invalid to discuss the identification of an Anthropocene when it violates norms of earth sciences and appears to be used for political ends rather than scientific ones.
In the Investment/Economics category you can read about the case for EV freedom and a collection of EV-related stories, then move on to the demonization of CEOs and why the term renewable energy should be retired from serious discussions. Next, an article about how climate policies are sucking the money out of aid programs that actually help people, then we read how ESG programs are susceptible to bribery and corruption, how coal production is smashing records and saved the grid during the recent winter storm, how Canadian regulators have adopted an entirely unreal view of climate risks and are thus introducing real systemic risk when they are supposed to be reducing it.
In Absurdities, my first look at the recent courtroom attack on journalist who challenge climate alarmism and the absurd verdict rendered, absent any evidence.
SCIENCE
Persistent warm Mediterranean surface waters during the Roman period See also a summary of this research at Roman Warm Period Was 3.6°F Warmer Than Today, New Study Shows "The most solid image that emerges of this trans-Mediterranean comparison is the persistent regional occurrence of a distinct warm phase during the Roman Period. This record comparison consistently shows the Roman as the warmest period of the last 2 kyr, about 2 °C warmer than average values for the late centuries for the Sicily and Western Mediterranean regions. After the Roman Period a general cooling trend developed in the region with several minor oscillations. We hypothesis the potential link between this Roman Climatic Optimum and the expansion and subsequent decline of the Roman Empire.
"During this period, in fact, developed the greatest ancient civilization of all time, the Roman one. We hypothesise the relevance that these climate conditions may had in the expansion of the Roman Empire and its collapse with the general development of colder conditions."
Seasonal temperatures in West Antarctica during the Holocene "Here, we analyse a continuous record of water-isotope ratios from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide ice core to reveal summer and winter temperature changes through the last 11,000 years. Summer temperatures in West Antarctica increased through the early-to-mid-Holocene, reached a peak 4,100 years ago and then decreased to the present."
"Yet, here we are in 2024 and little if any re-examination has taken place. As a result of the high prevalence of RCP8.5 studies in the literature, these scenarios are consequently the most commonly cited within scientific assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. For instance, the recent 2021 IPCC AR6 referred to RCP8.5 as “business as usual” many times.
"...our 2020 literature review found almost 17,000 peer-reviewed articles that use RCP8.5. In 2024, that number has grown to more than 45,000 studies! And every day so far in 2024, there have been 25 new studies published using the outdated RCP8.5.
"Make no mistake. The momentum of outdated science is powerful. Recognizing that a considerable amount of climate science to be outdated is, in the words of the late Steve Rayner, “uncomfortable knowledge” — that knowledge which challenges widely-held preconceptions and which has become institutionalized."
Tinkering with Time: The Campaign to Conjure Up an “Anthropocene” Epoch " Their work attempts to determine what evidence an ancient, forgotten, advanced civilization would leave in the geological record. Their conclusions are sobering. After asserting that the activity of a long-past society might be discernible in the rock record, they go on to describe how vanishingly small the evidence would be. This in turn implies how much of a record our current society will leave."
"Yet, even if our high-tech civilization lasts many thousands more years, for reasons of preservation potential discussed below, traces in the rock record will be few. This is partly because, as technology advances, pollution and our overall environmental footprint decrease."
"The duration of these units then, of many thousands to millions of years, is one glaring reason why the Anthropocene concept – an “epoch” 80-250 years long – is questionable and will remain so even if humans are around for thousands more years. The so far 12,000-year-long Holocene itself is a stretch, being roughly 1,000 times shorter than a typical epoch. The duration of the proposed Anthropocene “Epoch” just isn’t sufficient or significant."
"Given all of this, one leans towards the suspicion that the whole Anthropocene concept is another example of politicized science, using earth science to bolster a public policy agenda. Even if this is done with the best of intentions, it can’t help but undermine the scientific enterprise. The “Anthropocene” also smacks of simple hubris, denying the fact that all of humanity’s efforts and aspirations, played out over thousands of years, will geologically end up as a thin layer of clay. In the Coen Brothers’ language, a forgotten grease spot on the train tracks."
INVESTMENT/ECONOMICS
The case for EV freedom Government should remove all preferences for electric vehicles and allow them to compete and grow on a free market. This will enable EVs to reach their full potential to provide affordable, no-tailpipe-emissions transport without harming consumers or the grid.
Apple kills its electric car after 10 years development
Mercedes Benz ditches plan to sell only EVs by 2030
How EVs became such a massive disappointment
Toyota will change automotive forever: its hydrogen combustion engine will retire EVs
The dash for electric cars risks further industrial destruction in Britain and Europe
Portraying CEOs as cartoon villains "Politicians are scapegoating corporate CEOs for the problems that ultimately the governments created." "What should governments do instead of blaming corporations and their CEOs? They should reduce unnecessary spending to stop inflation and allocate their (or rather, the taxpayers’) limited resources to proper uses, such as crime deterrence and law enforcement to protect citizens’ individual rights. (And governments should privatize education so that children’s development as independent thinkers can be restored). They should also cull regulations to encourage private investment and to free the markets to more competition – including in education – that lowers prices and increases the quality of products. As for company CEOs, they should direct their companies to do what is feasible to protect their customers from harm while using their products, to welcome competition, and to strive for improved efficiencies to maximize profits. The outcome would be a win-win situation for all."
Time to Retire the Term “Renewable Energy” from Serious Discussions and Policy Directives: Part II Electric generation in the form of alternating power has to match load on an instantaneous basis. It’s important that the total generation supply be able to match the load as it ramps up or down. Resources that are dependable and can ramp up and ramp down to follow changes in load are very valuable allowing system operators to depend on them. Plants with the best dispatchability include hydro storage facilities, natural gas plants and batteries/storage. In the middle are plants which provide dependable baseload but are more limited in how well they follow load. These plants rang from coal, combined cycle gas plants, biomass and geothermal to nuclear. Wind and solar generally complicate load following as they are not dependable or able to follow load without attached storage.
Don’t raid poor countries' development budgets to fund climate policy - "Rich countries shouldn't force unreliable wind and solar power on poor nations where alleviating poverty is the priority. Too many rich-world politicians and climate campaigners seem to forget that much of the world remains mired in poverty and hunger. Yet rich countries are increasingly replacing their development aid with climate spending. The World Bank, whose primary goal is to help people out of poverty, has now announced it will divert no less than 45 per cent of its funding toward climate change, shifting some US$40 billion annually away from poverty and hunger."
Will 2024 Be the Year to Challenge ESG Investing? "While some of the goals of ESG investing may be admirable, it has been found that companies who have widespread ESG programs may be susceptible to bribery and other forms of corruption."
"A thorough analysis by researchers at the London School of Economics is a stern warning to companies implementing ESG investing. The main sources of corruption identified in the report include: money laundering, climate washing, bribery, and tax fraud. Many of these crimes can be committed in other aspects of business and government. However, ESG gives sophisticated financial criminals a big opening."
"The efforts to make energy companies more “socially responsible” is fraught with risks that put companies in legal or financial jeopardy, or at the very least, damage their reputations. Investors and the public are finally asking questions about the benefits of ESG policies and if they help or hinder a company’s profitability. The warning signs are there. It is time for companies to examine its policies through a lens of reality."
Dirty Secret - Global coal demand is smashing records. "What happens in China is the single most important development to track, as the country accounts for a staggering 55% of the world’s annual coal consumption. To say China is playing a cynical game with the climate elite of the West would be an understatement. While happily supplying the developed world with all the wind, solar, and battery raw materials it is willing to waste its money on, China has been permitting and building new coal-fired power plants faster than any country in history." "China has no intent to meet its climate obligations. It is more than happy to profit from countries willing to sacrifice themselves at the altar of The Church of Carbon™ and even happier to recycle those profits into securing coal at prices lower than they would otherwise be if so much international demand hadn’t been voluntarily removed from the market."
New Report: Coal, Natural Gas Saved the Grid In January Winter Storm This article is based on a longer report that can be found here. "Collectively, coal and natural gas provided most of the additional (incremental) electricity generation that was needed when the storm peaked on January 17. Each provided approximately 40% of the additional electricity. Including a small contribution from oil, fossil fuels generated 82% of the additional electricity that was needed when the storm peaked.
"Once again, dispatchable power generation, such as natural gas and coal, increased electricity generation to meet the heightened demand. Wind generation faced challenges with fluctuation and dropped during peak demand hours, while solar generation was entirely or almost entirely absent during peak electricity demand hours.
"The following table shows the contribution of fossil fuels to providing the additional electricity needed in each of the five regions during the hour when electricity demand peaked:
ERCOT 93%
PJM 87%
SPP 79%
Southeast 67%
MISO 53%
Joe Oliver: OSFI should get back in its lane and concentrate on finance, not climate policy "The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) is indulging in regulatory overreach by requiring highly implausible climate risk disclosure and imposing “integrity-based” oversight, with negative implications for the efficiency of the financial system, which should be a top priority.
"What makes OSFI oversight unrealistic is that the climate scenarios it insists institutions consider are based on the UN’s “Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5,” basically a worst-case scenario.
"The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the UN body for assessing the science related to climate change, has said the likelihood of 8.5 is “low,” which actually overstates its probability. It assumes a five-fold increase in global use of coal by 2100 and cessation or even reversal of all government green initiatives. Neither is remotely possible. As a result, RCP 8.5 has far less than a one per cent probability, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and it is therefore no longer used by the Biden Administration. Ottawa’s stubborn reliance on RCP 8.5 does not require or even justify an arms-length crown corporation to impose unrealistic assumptions on forecasting exercises it is requiring 350 institutions to conduct.
"These are noble (if nebulous) principles, but it is fraught when a regulator, and by extension government, starts supervising ethical behaviour. What if a board member or senior manager expresses reservations about the economic and social costs of net-zero, advocates for the development of oil and natural gas or opposes DEI policies for moral or practical reasons? Some senior government officials and public servants would likely impugn the integrity and ethics of people with those views."
JUICE (Episode 1) - Texas Blackout In February 2021, millions of Texans lost power, and the state’s grid came within four or five minutes of a total failure that would have resulted in tens of thousands of deaths. It’s hard to overstate the importance –– and complexity –– of our electric grid. But how did our most important energy network get weakened? And what can we do to fix it?
ABSURDITY
In the recently concluded defamation trial launched a decade ago against a reporter and a blogger, scientist Michael Mann, inventor of the infamous hockey stick graph, did not even produce any evidence of his claim, never mind the very strong evidence required to prove defamation, and knowingly introduced false evidence that the judge sharply reprimanded him for, yet the jury found Mark Steyn and Rand Simberg guilty of defamation and awarded Mann $1 against each of them. As one of the defense expert witness says, "the case was really about politics and ideology" and not defamation.
An no, you read that correctly. One dollar of actual harm. They did award Mann $1,000 of punitive damages from Simberg, and one million dollars from Steyn, who capably defended himself at trial. The message seems clear from this 6-person DC jury: don't dare speak up to challenge the popular narrative of climate catastrophe, or you can be sued and a fine of $1M levied against you, not to mention the enormously expensive ten-year trial that would bankrupt almost anyone. Oh, except that Michael Mann testified that he had no knowledge of any legal expenses for his team of high-priced lawyers, and had never paid a single bill for their work. He claimed to not know who was paying his bills, which would have easily mounted to a couple of million dollars. Maybe this is what is meant by "climate justice?"
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