Weekly clippings #45 - temp causes CO2 change, Net Zero costs 700% more, bad data, ESG fraud, no transition, mindless ESG bureaucracy, $1.5T EV bubble burst
Ho hum, another week and another litany of ESG errors revealed. It's not hard to find folks, but when will regulators and policymakers awake to this reality? Likely not until the general culture has turned against them - and the tide is turning.
• Another powerful study shows that temperature causes CO2 and the human influence on CO2 is not discernable.
• Climate change may cost 1% to 2% in a century, but net-zero policies will cost 700% more.
• Clarity on the Lytton BC heat dome of 2021.
• Fraud in sea level rise measurement alteration.
• Canadian arctic ice reporting bias.
• Businesses worry about ESG fraud.
• Blackrock faces pressure about ESG.
• Canadian banks say sustainable finance pledges may not curtail emissions growth
• Noticing that the energy transition is not happening
• Energy companies start to find their voice at last.
• Bonuses padded by cryptic ESG claims draw scrutiny.
• ESG has spawned a bull market in mindless bureaucracy.
• Ontario industrial wind turbines robbing us.
• EV stock bubble bursting has cost investors $1.5T.
Net Isotopic Signature of Atmospheric CO2 Sources and Sinks: No Change since the Little Ice Age "Recent studies have provided evidence, based on analyses of instrumental measurements of the last seven decades, for a unidirectional, potentially causal link between temperature as the cause and carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) as the effect. In the most recent study, this finding was supported by analysing the carbon cycle and showing that the natural [CO2] changes due to temperature rise are far larger (by a factor > 3) than human emissions, while the latter are no larger than 4% of the total. Here, we provide additional support for these findings by examining the signatures of the stable carbon isotopes, 12 and 13. Examining isotopic data in four important observation sites, we show that the standard metric δ13C is consistent with an input isotopic signature that is stable over the entire period of observations (>40 years), i.e., not affected by increases in human CO2 emissions. In addition, proxy data covering the period after 1500 AD also show stable behaviour. These findings confirm the major role of the biosphere in the carbon cycle and a non-discernible signature of humans." [emphasis added]
"From modern instrumental carbon isotopic data of the last 40 years, no signs of human (fossil fuel) CO2 emissions can be discerned"
Our take: Referring to the same finding in other studies, this one adds to the literature showing the cause of CO2 changes is temperature changes from natural causes, and that no human signature can be detected. Do you think this will get any attention in the mainstream media or cause any ESG oriented organizations to reverse course?
‘Follow the Science’ Leads to Ruin "Climate policy needs to take into account the costs of draconian measures, which are enormous." "A new peer-reviewed study of all the scientific estimates of climate-change effects shows the most likely cost of global warming averaged across the century will be about 1% of global gross domestic product, reaching 2% by the end of the century. This is a very long way from global extinction. Draconian net-zero climate policies, on the other hand, will be prohibitively costly. The latest peer-reviewed climate-economic research shows the total cost will average $27 trillion each year across the century, reaching $60 trillion a year in 2100. Net zero is more than seven times as costly as the climate problem it tries to address."
Our take: Whenever the issue of climate policy is examined objectively we can see it is very different from how it is projected by alarmists. Lomborg is very good at objective, full-context analysis of big questions.
Dousing the hot hype In this video, historian John Robson analyzes the reporting and the science about the 2021 heat dome.
Our take: In June 2021 a combination of high pressure and high humidity created what is called a heat dome over western Canada and the United States. A high of 49.6C was reached in Lytton, BC, the highest temperature ever recorded in Canada. While one non-reviewed paper was published saying this was almost impossible without man-made climate change, and this was trumpeted around the world, subsequent studies and even the final reviewed paper by the same authors said there was no way to know this since there was so little data, and the heat dome in that location was likely just bad luck, such as happens with chaotic systems like weather. In short, while such an extreme event is very unlikely at a specific location, given the vast number of locations on Earth, such events happen much more regularly than you would think - likely having nothing to do with human activities.
The Greatest Scientific Fraud Of All Time -- Part XXXII (Sea Level Rise Edition) "The Greatest Scientific Fraud Of All Time is the fraud by which government functionaries alter data collected and previously reported in official data bases in order to support a narrative of impending catastrophic global warming. No other scientific fraud in world history comes close to this one in scope or significance. While prior frauds may have scored a crooked scientist some funding or maybe some temporary fame, this one drives trillions of dollars of worldwide government spending and seeks to transform the entire world economy. The prior 31 posts in this series are all collected for your reading enjoyment at this link.
"Those prior 31 posts have all concerned alteration of one particular sort of data, namely temperature records. The posts document how, at station after station, previously-reported data have been altered to make earlier temperatures cooler and later ones warmer, and thus to show an enhanced warming trend (or in many cases to replace a cooling trend with a warming trend). The altered temperatures then form the basis for hockey-stick shaped charts of world temperatures, showing rapid recent warming, and for claims from NASA and NOAA and the media that the most recent year or month was the “warmest ever.”"
Our take: Having studied the literature for many years, we can easily see many instances of data manipulation to support the pre-ordained finding of global warming and associated claims of climate damage. Making the past cooler and the present warmer has a long tradition now, going back tot he infamous Michal Mann hockey stick graph of the late 1990s, perhaps longer.
INVESTMENT/ECONOMICS
Businesses worried about ESG fraud as stakeholder pressure mounts: KPMG poll "Businesses are increasingly concerned about ESG fraud, which is when a company's environmental, social and governance efforts or data are exaggerated, embellished or distorted. A new survey by KPMG in Canada of 300 Canadian organizations victimized by fraud found that 89 per cent of respondents said they're facing intense scrutiny from stakeholders to demonstrate progress on ESG targets. The majority of the respondents said they're worried these pressures are increasing the risk of ESG fraud. The majority also said they're worried their organization could inadvertently commit ESG fraud."
"Almost a quarter of the surveyed organizations, all of which dealt with fraud in the past five years, said they have experienced or are currently experiencing ESG fraud." "With heightened scrutiny around ESG disclosure and performance right now, Seidler said ESG fraud or negligent misrepresentation could lead to a securities or Competition Bureau investigation, or even a class-action lawsuit."
Our take: If my business had adopted policies and marketed services based on premises that are provably false claims such as the existence of a climate crisis, bought into net zero ideology, promoted carbon credits and the like, I'd be very worried too. However, instead of tightening my ESG control systems I'd go back to the beginning and do the thorough due diligence I should have done, then declare I had made an honest error and would henceforth be adhering to what measurements of reality clearly indicate, what is best for human flourishing and what maximizes long term profits for shareholders, who can then use their profits as they see fit.
Blackrock to face round two with activist investor as anti-ESG pressure builds "In 2020 BlackRock’s chief, Larry Fink, wrote to clients that sustainability should be a “new standard of investing” and laid out plans that included the removal of companies that generate more than a quarter of their revenues from thermal coal from its actively managed portfolios. In the following four years, BlackRock’s sustainable asset portfolio has jumped eight-fold.
"Around the time of Fink’s announcement, Bluebell took a stake in the firm and wrote a letter to him stating that it was not the company’s role to “direct the public debate on climate and energy policies or impose ideological beliefs on the corporate world.”"
BlackRock Condemns Texas Fund’s Divestment of $8.5 Billion "...the leadership of the fund decided to do so in order to comply with a 2021 law that restricts investments with companies that engage in so-called boycotts of the fossil fuels industry."
Our take: At last some people are finding the courage to challenge ESG claims. Just wait until the regulators actually pay attention to the deep deceptions and obvious lack of due diligence relating to Net Zero, climate alarmism and ESG in general.
Canada’s big banks say sustainable finance pledges may not curtail emission growth "In their latest annual climate reports released over the past week, many Canadian banks have pledged billions of dollars in sustainable financing to decarbonize high-emitting sectors, while highlighting major challenges to meeting their goals. Regulators in the Americas and Europe have increasingly been worried about greenwashing, whereby companies exaggerate their environmental credentials."
Our take: The banks have carelessly bought into alarmist claims for many years, and may now be realizing the futility of Net Zero and the desperate need for more energy of all types. The regulators should indeed delve into the greenwashing done by banks and other financial institutions. It's not that they are not doing things, but that the things they are doing are useless, anti-human and damaging to shareholders and clients alike.
Starting To Notice That The Energy Transition Is Not Happening "Supposedly, there is a big energy transition going on. Throughout the West, countries have made ambitious pledges to reduce “greenhouse gas” emissions by specific percentages and by specific dates. Many such pledges were notably made in the Paris Climate Agreement of 2016. Some countries — for example, the U.S. and UK — have even gone beyond the Paris Agreement and made still more ambitious pledges in the years since then. But is any of it real?
"No, none of it is real. The failure to make the progress that would be necessary to achieve the alleged pledges and mandates is obvious and easily tracked. But a code of silence has enveloped the progressive media, commanding that no one is allowed to notice."
Our take: It was quite obvious when such pledges were made that they were pure politics and had no basis in reality. They were whims and wishes, not based on engineering and physics. As time passes and the difference between wishes and measurements grows wider, it becomes unavoidable. This is paralleled by the difference between climate models and reality, where the projections have all been far from measurements, so the process of altering measurements has been adopted to try and force the two together.
World’s top fossil-fuel bosses deride efforts to move away from oil and gas "The bosses of the world’s leading oil and gas companies have poured scorn on efforts to move away from fossil fuels, complaining that a “visibly failing” transition to clean energy was being pushed forward at an “unrealistic pace”.
"Nasser dismissed projections by the International Energy Agency (IEA) that global demand for oil and gas will peak by 2030, claiming that rising energy costs mean that people will require “the importance of oil and gas security” rather than shift to renewables. “In fact, in the real world, the current transition strategy is visibly failing on most fronts,” Nasser added, criticizing solar, wind and electric vehicles for what he said was a minimal impact in cutting greenhouse gas emissions. “And, despite our starring role in global prosperity, our industry is painted as transition’s arch-enemy,” Nasser complained.
Our take: At last, energy companies are slowly finding their voice and telling the truth: that their energy is vital to human flourishing and is desperately needed by billions of people. Now if they will lean into the morality of the good they provide to humanity, they have a chance of winning minds.
Bonuses Padded by Cryptic ESG Claims Draw Activist Scrutiny "As companies increasingly tie executive pay to ESG, there’s evidence to suggest the add-on is being used to enable bigger remuneration packages without leading to any meaningful environmental, social or governance improvement." "Companies that are caught awarding ESG bonuses without any measurable ESG improvement increasingly risk being called out." "If your bonus scheme measures only a small portion of your sustainability targets, and if these targets aren’t very ambitious, then you could potentially mislead others in terms of their assessments...”
Our take: While business leaders and activists pretend such goals will make a material difference to the business, this presumes businesses were not thinking about material risks before setting ESG targets, which is almost always false. Rather, new ESG targets are mostly harmful to humanity (CO2), biased (social) or damage the business (governance).
Barry Norris: ESG has spawned a bull market in mindless bureaucracy "I observe that the most highly rated ESG companies are often overly reliant on exogenous factors such as generous government subsidies or regulatory coercion of competitors, as well as historic zero interest rates and a general low cost of capital. There is nothing “sustainable” about companies that cannot generate profits in a free-market economy. Most investors would think that the inclusion of “governance” in an ESG investment process would involve an assessment on whether management are stealing from shareholders or cooking the books. ESG “governance” focuses instead on adherence to a subjective political agenda, such as carbon dioxide emissions or board and workforce representation based on ethnicity or gender, irrespective of their economic experience or background.
"Rather embarrassingly, nearly every high-profile corporate blow-up in recent times has occurred with the rogue company having the highest ESG ratings. Like the gravy train TV evangelist, the most fervent ESG advocates often hide their base motivations under the cloak of morality.
"The logical endgame of compulsory ESG is that all public capital is allocated — not primarily for profit — but according to the political values of organisations that are not democratically accountable. This sounds a lot like the way communist economies work, with so far zero examples of economic success.
"The fund management industry is currently sleepwalking into a dystopian ESG future. Far from creating wealth and doing good, ESG will destroy societies through an absence of economic growth that will inevitably come with the neglect of the profit motive. The consequences of ESG are profoundly immoral. Everywhere and always compulsory ESG should be rejected by principled and profit — rather than politically — focused investors."
Our take: It has been rare to see a money manager speak so clearly and forcefully against the ESG ideology. The recent increase is a good sign that honesty and integrity are not lost qualities in money management and that there is hope for a return to the separation of politics and economy.
ABSURDITIES
While You Were Sleeping those IWT Robbed You So it turns out the IESO sold industrial wind turbine power that Ontario could not use for 1.3 cents/kWh while it had a cost to Ontario of $6.70/kWh. "It is worth mentioning wind generation for the full day peaked at the hour ending at 1 AM generating 3,387 MW (69.1% of capacity) and hit its low point at the hour ending at 4 PM when it only generated 223 MW or 4.5% of its rated capacity. The foregoing points out the vagaries of IWT generation that can’t be counted on to be reliable and won’t take us to that elusive “net-zero” target the Trudeau-led Federal Government want us to achieve!
Our take: This is just one aspect of the unrecognized cost of unreliable electricity generation. The idea that the marginal cost of electricity from wind and solar is a simple measurement that can be determined outside of a full-system cost is absurd, as this example shows. Wind produced the most power when it was not needed and the least when it was most needed, leading to fantastically expensive handling of the excess and the almost total need for other energy sources. No sane person would design such a system.
The EV Stock Bubble Bursting Has Cost Investors $1.5 Trillion Our take: Well, the headline is a bit sensationalist. Sure the market value of these companies is down $1.5T but that was a bubble and almost no one bought right at the top, but still it does indicate a massive downward re-evaluation of these businesses. Yes, likely many people have lost a whole lot of money buying shares of these companies. Eventually reality wins.
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