Weekly clippings #49 - temperature causes CO2, the sun causes climate cycles, the transition destroys capital

 

SCIENCE

Climatic consequences of the process of saturation of radiation absorption in gases "This article provides a brief review of research on the impact of anthropogenic increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration on Earth's climate. A simplified analysis of resonant radiation absorption in gases is conducted. Building upon the material from the cited articles, theoretical and empirical relationships between radiation absorption and the mass of the absorbing material are presented. The concept of saturation mass is introduced. Special attention is given to the phenomenon of thermal radiation absorption saturation in carbon dioxide. By comparing the saturation mass of CO2 with the quantity of this gas in Earth's atmosphere, and analyzing the results of experiments and measurements, the need for continued and improved experimental work is suggested to ascertain whether additionally emitted carbon dioxide into the atmosphere is indeed a greenhouse gas."

"...in this article, an attempt was made to emphasize the importance of empirical studies on the saturation process of radiation absorption in gas, and more space was devoted to them. In the described experimental works, efforts were made to answer the fundamental question: what is the saturation mass of the absorbing gas, i.e., the mass above which further increase in absorption can be considered "negligible"? It is necessary to provide a more precise definition of the term "negligible," and therefore, the definition was adopted in which the saturation mass, ms, is defined as the mass of the dissolved absorbing substance in the gas per unit area perpendicular to the direction of radiation propagation, for which absorption reaches 95% of the maximum value that absorption asymptotically approaches with an increase in this mass."

"The determined saturation mass ms based on the plotted graph is 0.57kg/m2 for a temperature of 78.6°C, and 0.66kg/m2 for a temperature of 109.5°C. It should be noted that in the Earth's atmosphere, for the currently assumed concentration of CO2 - 400ppm, the amount of carbon dioxide per 1 m2 of horizontal surface is mz > 6kg/m2. Extending the horizontal axis of the graph from Fig. 7 to this value, we obtain the image shown in Fig. 9, which suggests that there is currently a multiple exceedance of the saturation mass for carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere."

"In the study (Humlum et al., 2013), the authors demonstrated that peaks of cyclic changes in air and water temperature globally precede peaks of cyclic changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration (Fig. 12). This finding supports the hypothesis that, as a result of saturation processes, emitted CO2 does not directly cause an increase in global temperature. Instead, it suggests that an increase in temperature likely leads to the release of carbon dioxide from the oceans."

"The presented material shows that despite the fact that the majority of publications attempt to depict a catastrophic future for our planet due to the anthropogenic increase in CO2 and its impact on Earth's climate, the shown facts raise serious doubts about this influence. Without delving into the accuracy of the utilized models, we should closely examine the possibilities of gathering reliable input data for these models."

Our take: This adds to the literature showing temperature causes atmospheric CO2 change, as opposed to the opposite. One wonders how much reasoning and research data it takes to persuade people who have adopted the climate catastrophe agenda to change their minds - or perhaps they are not interested in learning the facts as this would shatter their closely-held ideology.

How we know that the sun changes the Climate. Part I: The past "The Sun is a variable star and the amount of energy it emits varies from month to month, year to year, and century to century. One of the manifestations of these variations are sunspots, which are more common when the Sun is more active and disappear when it is less active. These spots follow a solar cycle of about 11 years, but sometimes there is a longer period, decades or centuries, when the Sun’s activity is so low that there are no spots. These periods are called grand solar minima. There are also periods of decades or centuries when the activity is higher. These are called grand solar maxima."

"What they have found is that the population increased greatly with the advent of agriculture, but every time there was a severe deterioration in the climate, the human population suffered from diminishing resources. And the largest declines occurred when grand Spörer-type solar minima took place. Other population declines also coincide with other cooling periods, confirming our reconstruction. 

This tells us that the worst climate changes in the past have been caused by changes in solar activity. It also tells us that what is bad for humanity is cooling, not warming."

"Now we can respond to the IPCC and NASA. Never mind that solar irradiance changes very little, and never mind that temperature does not always do the same thing as solar activity. Clearly there are other factors at play. But we can state emphatically that changes in solar activity affect the climate because that is what the climate says. The study of past climate leaves no room for doubt. The Sun changes the climate. And if we don’t know how it does it, we should study it."

"In 2016, I developed a model to predict solar activity in the 21st century. At the time, some scientists believed that solar activity would continue to decline until a new grand solar minimum and mini-ice age. But my model predicts that solar activity in the 21st century will be similar to that of the 20th century. It also predicted that the current solar cycle, the 25th, would have more activity than the previous one, and it was right."

"The second piece of good news is that if much of the 20th century warming is due to the Sun, then there is no climate emergency. Believing that all climate change is due to our emissions is one of those errors that sometimes occur in science, like believing that the Earth is the center of the solar system, that interplanetary space is full of ether, or that stomach ulcers are caused by stress, not bacteria."

Our take: we have previously linked to research explaining the links between the sun and Earth's climate cycles. it is a fascinating field of study that climate catastrophists studiously ignore or mis-understand.

INVESTMENT/ECONOMICS

Tracking The Demise Of The U.S. Green Energy Transition "We’re coming up on three and a half years into the Biden presidency — a presidency which from the outset promised an “all of government” regulatory onslaught to force a transition away from fossil fuels and to “green” energy.  And the regulatory onslaught has indeed come forth.  But how about the actual transition in energy use?  Not so much."

"On the regulatory onslaught front, on March 7, 2024 Thomas Pyle of the Institute for Energy Research put out a list of “200 Ways the Biden Administration and Democrats Have Made it Harder to Produce Oil & Gas.”  The list is chronological, beginning with Executive Orders that Biden issued on his first day in office (January 20, 2021) and continuing right up to the date of the post."

"So with the double whammy of endless restrictions and harassment of fossil fuel producers, and subsidies for the wind and sun, undoubtedly oil and gas production must be shrinking rapidly?  Not at all.  In fact, domestic production of both has just recently hit all-time records."

"Well, but surely the transition to electric vehicles is taking off?  Maybe — but the latest data would seem to indicate that the electric vehicle market is suddenly in big trouble."

Our take: despite a huge government opposition to fossil fuel energy, it is still growing. Just imagine if we were free to produce energy in a free market!

Biden's EV mandate: a dictatorial attack on the American driver and the US grid "Biden's de facto mandate of over 50% EVs by 2032 is a dictatorial attack on the American driver and the US grid that will 1. Force Americans to drive inferior cars; 2. Place massive new demand for reliable electricity on a grid that is declining in reliable electricity supply.

Energy returned on investment "Energy Returned on Investment, or EROI, also referred to as Energy Returned on Energy Invested (EROEI), EROI is the ratio of energy produced to energy consumed in that energy source along its entire life cycle. The higher the better. Let's see it from the sustainability perspective. 

"For instance, solar with storage, leaving all the economics aside, requires half of the production reinvested in its lifecycle, as with an EROI of 2 we need 1 unit of energy to deliver 2 units of energy. So, if half of the energy produced is used for the maintenance of the solar and battery lifecycle, the other half is all that is left for the rest of the civilization and industries. In other words, if we had to live only on solar and batteries, half of the energy of our civilization would go back to the energy industry. Good for the solar and battery industry, very bad for everyone else.

"If we had to live only on nuclear, then 1 out of 75 units of energy generated would be needed to maintain the energy supply. In other words, while a future of solar+batteries would leave 50% of the energy available for the development of our civilization, a nuclear power future would require only 1.3% of the energy to maintain the energy generation industry, leaving 98.7% for the expansion of our civilization.

"Why is then solar (without storage) spreading so fast, and so cheap? well simply because 90% of the energy in its lifecycle is invested in China, and China runs on coal. Looking at this from another perspective, solar panels without batteries with an EROI of 4 are condensed coal where 1/4 of the energy produced out of them was already used for the manufacturing of the shiny panel, most of it coming from coal.

"The same happens with the materials. We incorrectly call them renewables simply because from our modest human perspective we consider the sun an infinite source of energy. But, the mining, processing, assembly, and decommissioning of materials that can't be reused for the same purpose— as it happens with glass, silicon, and wind blades — is a huge flow of material from mine to wasteland, the highest of any power source, that makes solar and wind far, very far from being renewable sources.

"Solar and wind don't release carbon while in use, but since they have a low EROI and a high material demand, they are the most polluting power sources, only behind fossil fuels."

Our take: we hope the day soon comes when most investment managers will do proper due diligence on the financial merits of energy technologies using both a scientific and economic analysis, recognizing what is and is not sustainable without taxpayer subsidies and mandates. 

California’s Exploding Rooftop Solar Cost Shift "There’s a lot of anger in California right now about rising electricity prices. Since 2020, residential rates of the two largest investor-owned utilities – PG&E and Southern California Edison – have risen, respectively, by 38% and 40% after adjusting for inflation. Inflation adjusted rates of San Diego Gas & Electric, the third largest, have only risen 11% during that time, but SDG&E was already the most expensive in 2020. The prices of all three are now more than double the national average."

"Regardless of what is driving utility costs higher, their impact on rates is multiplied when customers install their own generation and buy fewer kilowatts-hours from the grid. That’s because those households – whether they are customers of the utility or of a community choice aggregator  – contribute less towards all of the fixed costs in the system, such as vegetation management, grid hardening, distribution line undergrounding, EV charging stations, subsidies for low-income customers, energy efficiency programs, and the poles and wires that we all rely on whether we are taking electricity off the grid or putting it onto the grid from our rooftop PV systems. Since those fixed costs still need to be paid, rates go up, shifting costs onto the kWhs still being bought from the grid."

Our take: we have long known that residential rooftop solar panel policies favour the wealthier people able to afford them and harm the more financially vulnerable people in society. California is providing us a case study in poor energy policy to study - do you think others will truly learn from them?

US Fund Managers With ESG Mandates Have Worst-Ever Outflows - "US fund managers suffered their worst-ever quarter for ESG-focused products as the pace of client redemptions intensified." "It’s the latest sign that US investors are turning their backs on the investment strategy, which has been targeted by high-profile Republicans as “woke” and anti-American in its design. At the same time, many core ESG industries such as wind and solar have suffered setbacks, leading to poor returns and further alienating many investors."

Our take: whether this trend is durable remains to be seen, but there are early signs that people are starting to recognize the follies of ESG.

The Climate-Alarmist Movement Has A Big PR Problem On Its Hands "The whole “net-zero by 2050” narrative that cranked up in earnest in early 2021 has now become a public relations problem for the climate-alarm movement, according to a senior official at the United Nations."

"As seems to always be the case among the globalist sponsors of this government-subsidized rush to saddle the world with unreliable power grids and short-range electric cars, the conversation among the leaders of the movement immediately moves not to perhaps reconsidering the approach to address public concerns, but to rejiggering the narrative. Stark recommends shifting the label and the narrative to more of a focus on investment and how renewables and EVs somehow improve energy security."

“We are talking about cleaning up the economy and making it more productive – you can call that anything you like,” he said.

"That would be a neat trick, inventing a narrative about benefits that don’t really exist. But it wouldn’t be the first time it’s been tried."

Our take: in a story that could have been part of the novel 1984, words don't have to have widely accepted meaning, you can just change the words or change their meaning to suit your ideology. 

Hertz is done gambling with EVs: It took a first-quarter $195 million hit on Teslas that just keep losing value and can’t sell them fast enough "Hertz is hurting. The company was expecting a challenging first quarter, but it got more than it bargained for: It reported a $392 million adjusted net loss on Thursday. Despite increases in rental car demand, Hertz said it’s been bruised by its fleet of electric vehicles—made up primarily of Teslas—that are unreliable and more costly than their gas-guzzling counterparts."

"But by late 2023, the tides of Hertz’s EV hopes had turned: Tesla was already slashing prices to deal with slowing demands, and then CEO Stephen Scherr said the cost to repair Teslas was twice the cost of fueling cars with gasoline. Hertz announced in January that it would sell 20,000 of the cars in favor of gas-powered vehicles. The rental company couldn’t seem to outrun Tesla’s misfortunes. By the end of that month Tesla recalled almost 200,000 cars across three models with self-driving capabilities over rearview mirror display issues that could increase the risk of accidents."

“The execution and marketing of EVs was a horror show across the board,” Daniel Ives, an analyst with Wedbush Securities, told CNN in March. “It’s a black eye they couldn’t recover from.”

Our take: business courses will no doubt make case studies out of how a generation of business leaders and investment managers were fooled by climate-alarm propaganda into making massive misallocations of capital. The question we have is how long this will take and how much capital destruction will occur before reason returns?

ABSURDITIES

Climate Change is Homophobic Now "LGBTQ people in same-sex couple households disproportionately live in coastal areas and cities and areas with poorer infrastructure and less access to resources, making them more vulnerable to climate hazards." 

Ford's EV Q1 Losses Are Truly Impressive "Ford Motor Company reported this week that it somehow managed to lose an impressive $132,000 per EV sold during Q1 2024. That is almost double the per-unit loss the company reported in Q2 2023, as calculated by our friend Robert Bryce."

"Ford, like most automakers, has announced plans to shift from traditional gas-powered vehicles to EVs in coming years. But it is the only traditional automaker to break out results of its retail EV sales. And the results it reported Wednesday show another sign of the profit pressures on the EV business at Ford and other automakers."

The EV ‘Bloodbath’ Arrives Early "The latest example came this week when Ford Motor Company reported that it had somehow managed to lose $132,000 per unit sold during Q1 2024 in its Model e EV division. The disastrous first quarter results follow the equally disastrous results for 2023, when the company said it lost $4.7 billion in Model e for the full 12-month period."

Our take: wow, how long will shareholders tolerate such destruction of capital in the name of supposed climate-salvation?