Weekly clippings #31 - Impossible renewables, impossible mining, blocked SDGs progress, hope for nuclear

In the Science category we have a new peer-reviewed study examining the backup needed for intermittent renewables, and it’s enormous and thus enormously expensive. A second link shows how CO2 intensity has been declining in a straight line for sixty years and all the climate policies have made zero difference. 

In the Investment/Economics category we have “green” energy reversals, impossible mining, nuclear promises and Net Zero hampering UN Social Development Goals.

Finally, filed under Absurdities, Canada’s cow burp credit trading system. You just can’t this stuff up…

Intermittent Renewables Can't Work On Their Own A peer-reviewed study published in September 2023 with the title “Storage requirements to mitigate intermittent renewable energy sources: analysis for the US Northeast” finds that a system running on wind and solar would need storage equal to 25% of annual energy production to be reliable. The lead author elaborates on the research in a blog post. 

Responding to criticism, the authors reviewed some 360 papers recommended by the critic.  Here is a list of what they found:

• The inter-annual and seasonal variations were rarely studied.
• The vast majority of the studies were limited to diurnal and minute-by-minute variations.
• The publications only investigated the use of few hourly storage capacities.
• The primary sustainability metric was reducing CO2 emissions.
• Most of the publications were limited to low renewable penetration.
• No publication attempted to address complete decarbonization.
• Even the most ambitious “deep decarbonization” scenarios stopped at 25-50% renewable contributions that was considered “high renewable penetration”. 
• And in summary: Most of the reviewed papers assumed that solar and wind will be always supplemented by some form of “firm generation capacity”, which is the obfuscated name of using fossil fuels complemented with “carbon capture and sequestration”. 

In other words, the orthodox “peer-reviewed” scientific literature is almost completely lacking in consideration of the most important, fundamental problem of transitioning to an energy system based on electricity generated by the wind and sun: integrating renewables into a reliable grid.

Global climate policy evaluated with two simple figures (I've only included one.) The black line shows steadily rising emissions, but the red line shows that more and more is produced per unit of energy and emissions. "Importantly, if the world continues on the trajectory of decarbonization going forward that it has had since 1960, then we would reach net-zero carbon dioxide by around 2070, which is more or less consistent with a 2 degrees Celsius temperature target."

The Green Energy Wall Gradually Coming Into Focus Over the past few weeks and months, several parts of the coming Green Energy Wall have started to come into focus.  The two factors that are emerging most significantly at this early stage are (1) voters starting to catch on, and (2) the inability of wind and solar developers to deliver projects at costs that are at all workable for consumers. And meanwhile the march to “green” energy, after years of uncontradicted hype, is now experiencing one reverse after another.  It turns out that there are limits to how much governments can achieve by trying to hide the costs of wind and solar energy through various subsidies and tax credits.  At some point, after pocketing all the subsidies and credits, the developers still must deliver power to the grid at an affordable cost; and if they can’t, they will go broke.

Can Metal Mining Match the Speed of the Planned Electric Vehicle Transition? In total, this adds up to 388 new mines. For context, as of 2021, there were only 270 metal mines operating across the US, and only 70 in Canada. If Canada and the US wish to have internal supply chains for these vital EV metals, they have a lot of mines to establish in a very short period. Historically, however, mining and refining facilities are both slow to develop and are highly uncertain endeavors plagued by regulatory uncertainty and by environmental and regulatory barriers. Lithium production timelines, for example, are approximately 6 to 9 years, while production timelines (from application to production) for nickel are approximately 13 to 18 years, according to the IEA.

Siemens Considering Cancelling its Onshore Wind Turbine Business Despite New Subsidies The onshore turbine segment has suffered “a three-year decline. In the past financial year 2022/23 alone (as of September 30), the loss amounted to a net loss of 31 billion euros in sales of 4.6 billion euros, after lower red figures had already been recorded in previous years.” That amounts to loss-to-sales ratio of roughly 680%[!], a fairly amazing number that is almost impossible to comprehend, even for a heavily subsidized wind business.

Canada vows to triple nuclear power production by 2050  The nuclear renaissance is in full effect as Canada joins an international movement to dramatically increase the amount of nuclear energy produced across the country. “This is very significant. Canada is joining 22 countries in signing a pledge to triple its nuclear capacity by 2050,” said Chris Keefer, co-founder of Canadians for Nuclear Energy. The announcement made at COP28, the United Nations Climate Change Conference in the United Arab Emirates, is an about face for Canada, which initially left nuclear energy out of it’s 2022 Green Bond program to support clean energy projects. Now, it’s banking on nuclear to be the driving force behind reaching Net Zero emission targets by 2050. “This represents, I’ll call it a U-turn, in Canadian policy. We’ve gone in the last two years from a very lukewarm approach to nuclear to a very warm embrace,” said Keefer, who also founded Doctors for Nuclear Energy. The change in philosophy and energy policy comes down to reliability, said Keefer. As clean and green as wind and solar energy is, it’s simply not as reliable on its own as nuclear energy is.

NETZERO is impeding progress on UN Sustainable Development Goals  “Working in global energy and development, I often hear people say, ‘Because of climate, we just can’t afford for everyone to live our lifestyles.’ That viewpoint is worse than patronizing. It’s a form of racism, and it’s creating a two-tier global energy system, with energy abundance for the rich and tiny solar lamps for Africans.” – Kenyan activist and materials scientist Rose Mutiso.  “To deny the developing world access to the very infrastructure that has propelled us forward, all in the name of an uncertain future, is not environmentalism, but neocolonialism masquerading as virtue.” – Earth Scientist Matthew Wielicki

You Won't Believe Canada's Latest Solution to Global Warming  "...when Canada’s genius environment minister, Steven Guilbeault, and his minions were looking for more ways to solve their dogmatic climate “crisis,” they inevitably went looking for ways to curb cow burps and farts, but mostly the burps since those are the biggest piece of the methane cow pie. I mean, what else would a bunch of climate religious zealots do? To that end, the Canadian federal government published a draft plan Sunday to implement a cow burp credit trading system."